Iran's Crypto Shadow Economy Exposed by US and Israeli Strikes

Iran's economy has been facing significant challenges due to recent US and Israeli strikes on the country. One area that has gained attention is the regime's reliance on cryptocurrency mining and stablecoins. In 2019, Iran legalized crypto mining, allowing licensed operators to use subsidized electricity in exchange for selling mined bitcoin to the central bank.

The use of cryptocurrency has provided a tool for paying for imports and settling trade outside of the dollar system. According to estimates, Iran accounts for between 2-5% of global bitcoin mining power, with much of the activity operating out of public view. Blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis found that the Iranian crypto ecosystem reached $7.78 billion in 2025.

The growth of the Iranian crypto economy has been significant, with over half of total inflows linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Elliptic analysis found that IRGC-linked addresses accounted for more than 50% of total Iranian crypto inflows in the fourth quarter of 2025. The central bank also accumulated at least $507 million in USDT in 2025, likely to steady the rial and finance trade.

However, the effort to stabilize the currency has been unsuccessful, with data showing that the rial has lost over 96% of its value against the USD. If conflict disrupts power grids, mining output could dip in the short term, which could have significant implications for the Iranian economy.