Strong Dollar and Geopolitics Weigh on Risk Assets as Labor Market Data Looms

Bitcoin is trading around $60,000, stuck below the lower four-hour fair value gap (4H FVG) at this price. The strong dollar and geopolitics are weighing on risk assets, with a possible catalyst for change coming from the US labor market data block. Michael Saylor's influence on Bitcoin's price is also being closely watched, as his company STRC's preferred shares trade below par, limiting its ability to issue new paper in exchange for BTC.

The key macro trigger this week will be the US labor market data, with a strong employment report potentially fueling an assault on new highs for the dollar index (DXY). A clean sweep of the highs and a local reversal could lead to a pullback into the FVG before a new push higher. Alternatively, the market maker could drive DXY into a technical pullback or propel it to break through 101.771 without pause.

Ethereum is also in focus, with its price mirroring that of Bitcoin but with a more vulnerable structure. The cryptocurrency sits above an open liquidity pool at $1,503, and buyers will need to show up quickly to avoid a move lower. A scenario where the market maker prints a fake bounce and traps the crowd into longs before flipping into an aggressive sweep of the EQL/PWL at $58,030 is also possible.