Bitcoin Analyst Warns Against Getting Too Optimistic About Recent Price Rally

A recent surge in the price of Bitcoin has led some to believe that the cryptocurrency has finally hit its bottom. However, one analyst is warning against getting too optimistic about this trend.

Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, has been tracking the on-chain indicators for Bitcoin and believes that they have not yet reached the levels seen in previous bear markets. Specifically, he notes that the supply in profit/loss indicator has not crossed, the MVRV Z-score has not gone below zero, and Bitcoin has not traded below both its realized price and balance price.

Cowen identifies $78,000 to $79,000 as the current bear market resistance band, meaning that until Bitcoin closes convincingly above this level, the structure of a bear market remains intact. He also emphasizes that tactical rallies within bear markets are normal and do not signal a trend reversal.

The analyst is predicting that the most likely low in the Bitcoin cycle will be in Q4 2026, with an implied price target for a full reset at around $39,000 – roughly a 70% decline from the peak. He notes that this prediction has a 75% probability of being correct.