Bitcoin's On-Chain Data Flashes Capitulation Signs

The ratio of Bitcoin's unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) spent at a loss versus those spent in profit has dropped to its lowest level in this bear-market cycle, according to CryptoQuant analysis.

Analyst Darkfost said this signal typically reflects broader capitulation among holders rather than a single wave of short-term selling. He noted that the UTXO profit/loss spending ratio last appeared at this level during mid-2023, when BTC traded near $26,000.

DurdenBTC, another analyst, agreed that the reading matches cycle-low behavior but warned that 'it can still feel terrible for weeks' and buying may not look comfortable immediately. He also emphasized that price action can remain rough even after the charted bottom signal appears.

Darkfost connected this to SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) behavior, noting that long-term holders are starting to move into a 'capitulation phase.' However, he underscored that not all price weakness has the same source and emphasized that exchange inflows can increase the probability of near-term selling pressure.