Bitcoin Price Volatility Linked to Geopolitical Tensions and Inflationary Pressures

Bitcoin's price has been oscillating around the $71,000 mark due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict. Nic Puckrin, a crypto market analyst, suggests that even if the war ends now, its repercussions will likely define the story for 2026 and dominate the narrative through Q2.

The current setup is fragile, according to Puckrin, and a sustained push higher would depend on favorable developments beyond the immediate conflict. A confluence of a ceasefire, oil prices around $80, and softer-than-expected economic data would be necessary for a push towards $90,000.

The market's expectations around the federal funds rate have shifted in response to inflation concerns tied to wartime dynamics. The probability of a rate cut by July 29 sits at roughly one-third, with about a 33.6% chance of a 25 basis point cut.