Bitcoin Cycle Bottom Near $48,000: CryptoQuant Analyst

The CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. says that based on the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) model, Bitcoin's cycle bottom is near $48,000.

This model measures how much economic weight long-term holders put behind their coins when they move them. When old, dormant Bitcoin changes hands at scale, it generates a signal. CVDD aggregates those signals over time to estimate the market's true valuation floor.

According to Adler's analysis, $48,000 is identified as the structural cycle bottom by the CVDD model. Another key price level mentioned is $60,000, which he describes as a potential new accumulation zone.

Bitcoin has already tested below $60,000 earlier in 2026 and bounced back to the mid-$60,000s. The market's realized price currently sits at approximately $53,600, representing the average cost basis of all Bitcoin in circulation.

The CVDD model has a history of marking Bitcoin cycle lows. It flagged bottoms during the 2015 bear market, the 2018-2019 downturn, the COVID crash in March 2020, and the post-FTX capitulation in late 2022.