Bitcoin Faces Potential Crash to $45,000 by End of 2026

Bitcoin's price has been experiencing volatility in recent days, with a prediction market analysis suggesting that the cryptocurrency may crash below $45,000 by the end of 2026. This prediction is based on historical patterns in Bitcoin's cycles, which suggest a potential bottom around October or November 2026.

A report from Polymarket indicates that there is a 51% probability that Bitcoin will be trading below $45,000 by the end of December 31, 2026. This prediction is based on market data and historical trends, but it's essential to note that this is just one analysis among many.

Independent analyst NoLimit has also provided insights into Bitcoin's potential cycle low. According to historical patterns, Bitcoin typically reaches a bottom between 363 and 406 days after a peak in its cycles. Based on this framework, the current cycle after the 2024 halving has not yet hit the projected bottom window.

The recent decline in Bitcoin's price provides context for the shift in market sentiment. The cryptocurrency's price fell by 4.2% to around $70,817, while its market capitalization dropped by 4.51% to approximately $1.41 trillion. Trading volume rose by 18.8% to $46.77 billion.

On-chain data also suggests that a major low could appear in the coming months. NoLimit noted that Bitcoin has not yet reached the 'blue zone' on Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL), which is typically seen around major bottoms. However, this does not necessarily mean that a crash is imminent.

External factors are also putting pressure on sentiment. The recent hawkish Fed rate announcement left risk-asset bulls dissatisfied, while the so-called interest-rate 'dot plot' indicates only one rate cut this year despite labor-market weakness.