Melker Dismisses Bear Market Fears, Sees Temporary Drawdown in Bitcoin

Bitcoin's price drop has led many to speculate about a potential bear market, but Scott Melker disagrees with this assessment. In an interview on Binance's Inside the Blockchain 100, he explained that the current cycle is different from previous ones and therefore may not follow the same playbook.

Melker pointed out that Bitcoin hit its all-time high in October 2025, which was driven by ETF flows before the market was ready. Unlike previous cycles, there was no altcoin season and no blowoff top. As a result, he argues that the cycle is largely broken and may not experience commensurate downside if it never got proportional upside.

He drew parallels with the summer 2021 correction when Bitcoin dropped 55% from $65K to $28K before recovering to a new all-time high. Melker suggests that if this pattern holds, the current drawdown is just a painful but temporary pause. Four signals he watches at cycle bottoms are flashing right now: weekly RSI on the Bitcoin chart is at historic lows, the Fear & Greed Index has hit its lowest reading ever, 'Bitcoin going to zero' Google searches are at an all-time high, and Bitcoin is approaching the 200-week moving average.