CryptoQuant Warns Strategy to Halt Bitcoin Purchases Amid Cash Reserve Crisis

CryptoQuant has warned that Strategy, a Michael Saylor-led corporate Bitcoin buyer, should stop accumulating BTC and focus on rebuilding cash reserves to prevent a credibility crisis.

Strategy's preferred stock STRC hit a record 17.5% discount to par value last week, closing at $82.50 against its $100 par. Its cash reserves have dropped 38% since January 2026, partly due to retired convertible notes and ballooning dividend obligations from $300 million annualized in January to $1.2 billion today.

CryptoQuant's cycle framework classifies this as a bear phase, with 30-day apparent demand down approximately -63,000 BTC, a level consistent with distribution. The Coinbase premium remains negative, signaling U.S. spot buyers are not stepping in to absorb sell-side pressure.

The bull case is conditional, but CryptoQuant's own scenario analysis allows for a relief rally into the $71,500-$81,200 band if geopolitical and macro tensions ease materially. However, the most likely scenario is a consolidation between $60,000 and $66,000 near-term, with the $55,000 target in play if demand metrics deteriorate further.