Fidelity Sees Potential Catalysts for End of Crypto Winter

Bitcoin's price has been on a downward trend since reaching an all-time high of $126,200 in October 2025. The current price is below $69,000, which was the high during its 2019 to 2021 bull market. Fidelity notes that this drop doesn't quite fit the technical definition of a bear market, but it's clear we're far from being in a bull market.

Historically, bitcoin has emerged from four bear markets since 2011. To revive past markets, Fidelity highlighted five factors: the 4-year cycle driven by the halving mechanism that cuts mining rewards roughly every four years; regulation; monetary policy and use cases; growing institutional adoption; and monetary policy.

According to Fidelity, if the pattern continues, the current bear market could bottom out around November 2026. The SEC's approval of spot bitcoin ETPs in January 2024 helped push prices to new highs. The CLARITY Act is still being debated as of June 2026.

Fidelity stresses that the relationship between crypto prices and Federal Reserve interest rates is correlational, not causal. Breakout use cases could spark fresh demand, including real-world asset tokenization, stablecoins boosted by the GENIUS Act, and AI-related applications. However, growing institutional adoption is no longer a fresh narrative.