Nasdaq Explores Binary Options Tied to Flagship Index in Prediction Market Move

Nasdaq has made a significant move into the world of prediction markets by submitting a proposal to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to list binary options tied to its flagship 100 index. These contracts, referred to as 'Outcome Related Options,' would operate similarly to those found on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, where traders pay a fixed amount if a specified condition is met and expire worthless if it does not.

The proposed structure mirrors the format used in prediction market platforms, with prices shifting towards either end of the $0.01 to $1 trading range based on how traders assess the probability of a given outcome. This regulatory distinction is a deliberate structural feature of the proposal, as the contracts would be listed as securities options and fall under SEC jurisdiction.

The move comes as prediction-style trading volumes continue to set records, with combined monthly volume across Kalshi and Polymarket reaching approximately $18.4 billion in February, the sixth consecutive monthly record. Other major exchanges are also moving into the space, including Cboe Global Markets and CME Group, which is expanding access to crypto derivatives as demand for around-the-clock trading grows.