US Crypto Market Structure Bill Faces Uncertain Prospects in 2026

The CLARITY Act, a critical piece of legislation aimed at establishing clearer jurisdictional boundaries between regulatory agencies in the US crypto market, is facing an increasingly uncertain path forward.

According to Galaxy Digital, the leading digital asset investment firm, the odds of the bill being passed into law in 2026 are roughly 50-50. This assessment is not based on any single issue but rather the cumulative effect of multiple unresolved questions that must be addressed within a rapidly tightening legislative calendar.

The current focus is on the Senate Banking Committee, where discussions surrounding stablecoin rewards language have been ongoing. A compromise proposed by key negotiators Sen. Thom Tillis and Sen. Angela Alsobrooks would ban rewards solely for holding a stablecoin while allowing narrower incentives tied to activity-based payments or transfers.

However, until this text is officially released, the committee's 48-hour notice clock cannot start. Galaxy Digital emphasizes that stablecoin yield is just one of several live issues in Senate negotiations, which also include concerns over Section 505's impact on SEC exemptive relief for tokenization and ethics provisions related to government officials' crypto holdings.

Despite these challenges, the firm remains broadly favorable about the substance of the legislation. The CLARITY Act would establish jurisdictional boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, define pathways for tokens to be treated as non-securities once sufficiently decentralized, and create a durable legal framework that institutional capital has long lacked.