Bitcoin is trading at around $64,600 as of June 22nd, roughly 50% below its October all-time high of approximately $126,198. Kalshi's 'When will Bitcoin cross $100k again?' market indicates that real-money bettors are pessimistic about the cryptocurrency reaching this level soon.
The market resolves early as 'Yes' the moment the index crosses $100,000. If bitcoin fails to reach that level by January 1st, 2027, the contract resolves 'No.' Separate Kalshi contracts price a 57% chance that bitcoin drops below $50,000 before year-end.
Kalshi participants are responding to factors such as spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) flow fatigue, ongoing macro uncertainty around inflation and trade policy, and the absence of a clear catalyst capable of driving a near-50% move from current levels. Analysts are divided on the prospects for Bitcoin's recovery.
X account Killa believes there is 'no chance' of reaching $100K this year, while Dr. Whale on X is bullish, pointing to historical cycle patterns that suggest a 60%-plus move in the current cycle.