Markets Expect Prolonged Rate Stability Under Fed

Markets are displaying a strong expectation that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates steady until at least September 2027. This prolonged period of stability has led to a decrease in odds of near-term rate cuts, with the probability of a 25 bps cut in June 2026 sitting at 4.5%, down from 5% just yesterday.

The likelihood of a 50+ bps cut in April has also fallen sharply, as traders continue to reprice both the April and June 2026 cut markets. This represents one of the longest rate pauses in recent memory, driven by persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions.

Bitcoin markets have shown little reaction to this development, with the odds of Bitcoin trading below $68,000 on April 24 remaining at 0.1%. This suggests that traders do not view the rate outlook shift as a near-term catalyst for crypto prices.