Galaxy Cuts Clarity Act Odds to 50% as Senate Floor Time Narrows

Galaxy Digital has cut its odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 50%, citing concerns over timing rather than substance. According to Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy Digital, the Senate is running out of time to pass the bill before its August recess.

The CLARITY Act aims to establish a regulatory framework for digital assets in the US and has bipartisan support, but it faces criticism from lawmakers who argue it would allow crypto firms to offer yields on stablecoins without the same requirements as traditional financial institutions. Thorn notes that the Senate legislative schedule is congested, with several other bills competing for floor time.

The Senate's calendar is becoming increasingly crowded, with a House hearing scheduled for July 17 and a state work period from Monday until July 10. The August recess will then last five weeks before lawmakers return on September 14. Thorn warns that the debate over the SAVE Act has 'intensified' competition for floor time.

Galaxy Digital had previously lowered its estimate of the bill's passage from 75% to 60% on June 9, and now believes there is only a 50-50 chance of it becoming law in 2026. Despite this, over 200 crypto companies and organizations have urged the Senate to pass the CLARITY Act.