Bitcoin's Two Ticking Time Bombs Spark Alarm from Former Meta Engineer

A former Meta and Google engineer has sounded an alarm about Bitcoin's two ticking time bombs: quantum computing and decaying miner incentives. Patrick Shyu, who previously worked at Meta and Google, warns that these threats have yet to be defused.

The first time bomb is the slow erosion of Bitcoin's security as new coin issuance continues to shrink due to the halving cycle. The block subsidy has been cut roughly every four years, with the next expected in 2028. Shyu notes that only 5% of all Bitcoin is left to be minted.

He argues that the core problem lies in a missing fee economy, where fees meant to replace block rewards never fully materialized to fill the growing gap. As a result, miners switch off, security drops, and the network weakens, potentially triggering a slow death spiral.

The second time bomb is quantum computing, which could break Bitcoin's cryptography using Shor's algorithm. Experts predict this could happen around 2030 or 2035, but Shyu warns that there has been no cohesive plan to address this issue.