BitMEX Predicts Bitcoin Bottom at $50K-$44K Amid Late-Cycle Bears

Bitcoin's price drop below $60,000 may not be enough to mark the final low, according to BitMEX Alpha. The research arm of crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX says that earlier bear markets typically lasted a year from peak to trough and ended with drawdowns of 73% or more.

The current cycle is about nine months old and roughly 50% off the high, which suggests it's late-cycle by time but still too shallow by price. Senior research analyst Shang Wu notes that a 60% drop from the 2025 peak would put Bitcoin near $50,000, while a 65% drawdown would put it near $44,000.

The current cycle has different sellers than previous ones. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have turned from a support into an exit door for traditional portfolios. Michael Saylor's Strategy is also seeing its mNAV fall near 1.0, meaning the old equity-issuance flywheel is no longer working, Wu says.