Bitcoin has seen a significant decline of 13% over the last seven days, dropping back to the midpoint of its Realized Price to True Market Mean range. This pullback indicates that the cryptocurrency is trading at levels consistent with later-stage bear market conditions. The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis has dropped below the True Market Mean for the first time since January 2022, further solidifying this notion.
The 7-day SMA of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has collapsed from a local top reading of 3.16 to 0.29, mirroring the February panic wave. This collapse indicates that loss realization is now dominating spending activity on-chain. The Total Realized Loss has spiked to $1.35B per day, with $770M attributed to long-term holders capitulating from cycle top positions.
Bitcoin's latest rally stalled almost precisely at the aggregate US Spot ETF cost basis near $83K, turning what had previously acted as support into a clear area of resistance. This suggests that supply from trapped investors is outweighing new demand, creating overhead resistance. The inability to reclaim this level indicates that ETF positioning remains a headwind, with investors still using strength to de-risk rather than accumulate.