CLARITY Act Odds Plunge as Senate Negotiations Remain Stalled

The passage of the CLARITY Act in 2026 has become increasingly uncertain as Galaxy Digital lowered its approval odds to 50%. Despite ongoing Senate negotiations, senior Republicans continue to push for a July vote. Senator Tim Scott recently endorsed Majority Leader John Thune's proposed timeline, urging lawmakers to move the legislation forward.

Negotiators have been working behind closed doors to resolve key policy differences on ethics rules, anti-money laundering measures, and digital asset market oversight. The unresolved issues are crucial before the Senate can consider a floor vote. According to journalist Eleanor Terrett, congressional staff, White House officials, and crypto industry representatives have been negotiating in private.

Even if negotiators finalize the bill before lawmakers return, the Senate calendar could delay its progress. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has indicated that the National Defense Authorization Act will take priority once the Senate resumes work in mid-July. This could push consideration of the CLARITY Act to the latter half of July or even the opening week of August.