Bitcoin May Be at Bear Market Bottom: Checkonchain Analysis

Cathie Wood believes that America's 250th anniversary could be the catalyst for Bitcoin's biggest win yet. According to Checkonchain, a recent analysis suggests that Bitcoin may be at the bottom of its bear market after a 52% correction in February.

The report highlights that 24.6% of Realized Cap is now between $54,000 and $75,000, close to the 25% level that marked bottoms in 2018 and 2022. Checkonchain's Mean Reversion Index, which combines nine valuation models, hit a Q10 reading at the lows, historically a 90% probability bottom signal.

However, analysts caution that the recent recovery is increasingly driven by leveraged futures activity and rising open interest. CryptoQuant contributor Burak Kesmeci notes that $88,000 is a key resistance level for now, and only a settlement above it would turn all short-term cohorts positive and signal 'that would be the real signal of a trend reversal.'

Bitcoin Open Interest has just seen its largest increase in 2026, surpassing levels seen during all-time high formation. Despite funding rates remaining deeply negative, traders are returning to derivatives markets and taking on more leveraged exposure.