The US financial calendar is set to deliver a series of shocks that will determine the fate of portfolios at the start of April. The week is poised to become one of the most volatile as March comes to an end.
Monday's Federal Reserve speech by Jerome Powell will be a key trigger, as his rhetoric will provide a direct signal for the market. Any hint of tightening in response to inflation could lead to a sharp reassessment of risk positions, particularly considering that markets are already pricing in a 50% chance of rate hikes this year.
Tuesday and Wednesday will deliver a double punch to fundamental expectations, with consumer confidence and JOLTS job openings data testing Bitcoin's resilience. If Americans begin tightening their belts, capital inflows into spot ETFs may dry up, putting March support levels around $65,000 at risk.
On the other hand, strong macro data on Wednesday may paradoxically pressure prices, as it gives the Fed a reason to keep the dollar strong, limiting liquidity in cryptocurrencies, especially those heavily tied to retail demand.