Bitcoin Price Approaches Long-Term Holder Pain Point

Bitcoin's price has been struggling to recover in recent weeks, causing concern among long-term holders. Analysts have noted that the cryptocurrency's price is approaching its cost basis, which could trigger a final capitulation phase.

According to CryptoQuant analyst 'Darkfost', long-term holders are sitting on an average profit of around 74%, but this margin continues to decline as the price moves closer to the LTH cost basis. The analyst pointed out that each bear market has been characterized by price breaking below this cost basis, triggering a final capitulation phase marked by realized losses of around 20%.

Data from Glassnode confirms this trend, with the 90-day moving average of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio falling below 1. This suggests that the market is transitioning into an excess loss-realization regime, which can persist for at least six months before liquidity returns to markets.