Bitcoin Reclaims $61K on Weaker Jobs Report, Raises Balance Sheet Expansion Hopes

Bitcoin bounced back above $61,000 after the US Labor Department reported weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls in June. The 57,000 jobs added fell short of the consensus estimate of 113,000, sending implied probability of a September Fed rate hike from 64% to 54%. This news led to Bitcoin's price recovery, distancing itself from its recent low of $57,750.

The weaker labor data reduces inflationary pressure and, consequently, the justification for holding rates elevated by the Federal Reserve. Lower rate-hike odds compress the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and gold, while raising expectations for eventual balance sheet expansion.

CryptoQuant analyst gaah_im reported that Bitcoin's realized profit-to-loss ratio has hit its lowest level since 2022, indicating seller exhaustion at current prices. Historically, this combination has marked cycle bottom inflection points with extreme precision.