Bitcoin Prices Swing Amid Iran Tensions as Four-Decade Pattern Emerges

Bitcoin's price volatility has been on full display following the recent Iran airstrikes, with a swing of around 8% within hours. This comes as part of a longer-term trend where the cryptocurrency has lost value for five consecutive months.

The former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has analyzed this phenomenon and identified a four-decade pattern where US military involvement in the Middle East leads to Federal Reserve monetary easing. Hayes points out that every major US campaign since 1985 has been followed by Fed easing, citing examples such as the 1990 Gulf War and the aftermath of the September 11 attacks.

According to Hayes' analysis, this trend suggests that extended US engagement in conflict could increase the probability of rate cuts or expanded money supply to finance military operations. This, in turn, could affect Bitcoin prices.