Prediction Markets Reach Record Volumes on Polymarket and Kalshi

Prediction markets have experienced a significant surge in recent months, with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi reaching record volumes. This growth can be attributed to several factors, including easier access, broader media visibility, and rising demand for contracts linked to politics and geopolitics.

According to data from Dune Analytics, total transactions crossed 191 million in March, marking a growth of over 2,800% compared to the same period last year. Monthly notional volume reached approximately $23.9 billion, which is sharply higher than the $1.9 billion seen in the same month last year.

The strongest demand is now concentrated in contracts tied to US politics, leadership changes, and international flashpoints. Crypto-native markets remain active, but their share of total volume has fallen as users increasingly turn to event contracts linked to macroeconomic and geopolitical developments.