NYDIG, a financial services firm specializing in Bitcoin products and research, has published a report warning that Bitcoin could fall to $38,000 by October. The report points out that Bitcoin's performance this year is lagging behind other high-risk assets, with the cryptocurrency trading at nearly 30% lower than its beginning-of-year price and close to 50% below its October 2025 peak of $126,080.
The report notes that supply factors, rather than risk sentiment, are weighing on Bitcoin's performance this year. Historically, market patterns have indicated a potential cycle low near $38,000 by October if the current downturn resembles previous bear markets in 2014, 2018, and 2022.
NYDIG also observed that the passing of the US market-structure CLARITY Act could benefit the entire industry, including Bitcoin, although its direct price impact is less significant for the leading cryptocurrency compared to altcoins and crypto equities.