Stifel Predicts Bitcoin Could Fall to $38,000 Based on Trendline Analysis

Stifel Financial has made headlines in the cryptocurrency community by predicting that Bitcoin could fall to $38,000 based on a 15-year trendline connecting previous crash bottoms.

The firm's chief equity strategist, Barry Bannister, built the case for this prediction by drawing a straight line through the lowest point of every major Bitcoin crash since 2010 and extending it forward. This method has held true for 15 years, with each bottom landing higher than the last, forming an upward-sloping floor.

However, Bannister is not predicting a collapse but rather pointing out that the current decline would be consistent with every crash before it. He cites macro headwinds such as the Fed's restrictive policy and global M2 contraction, which could lead to less speculative money chasing risk assets.