Bitcoin's Price Buoyancy Tested by Slowing ETF Outflows and Hawkish Bond Yields

Bitcoin's (BTC) price remains buoyant due to U.S.-Iran deal hopes, but two market dynamics may impact its trajectory. The first is the outflow from bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which lost $228 million in redemptions last week, marking a sixth straight week in the red.

Although the bleeding slowed for a second consecutive week, according to SoSoValue data, the cumulative figure has reached $5.94 billion. Tagus Capital notes that while the market hasn't yet returned to sustained net inflows, the slowdown indicates that the most aggressive phase of institutional de-risking is fading.

The other notable dynamic is the decoupling of the U.S. two-year Treasury yield and WTI crude oil futures. While oil prices have collapsed, the two-year yield has strengthened, reaching 4.21%, its highest since February 2025. This divergence suggests that Fed rate-hike expectations are replacing energy market headwinds.

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE, is expected to confirm this trend, with a forecasted increase of 0.37% on the month lifting the 12-month rate to 3.4%, its highest since May 2024. Overall, the slower ETF outflows and hawkish bond yields indicate lower odds of a convincing BTC price recovery in the short term.