Bitcoin Price May Retest $50,000 Despite Recent Rebound

Bitcoin's recent defense of the $60,000 level may be a temporary reprieve as various indicators suggest a possible decline to around $50,000.

The mining cost model is signaling that bitcoin is testing the upper end of a key mining-cost support zone. A chart shared by Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards shows bitcoin's average mining cost at about $62,650, with the lower bound based on electricity costs at about $50,120. If the current price clearly falls below the mining-cost range, the next value support level could be around $50,000.

The realized price indicator also points to a possible decline. Bitcoin's realized price, which refers to the average purchase price of all holders, is currently at about $53,600. In past major cycle bottoms, spot prices generally formed after falling below the realized price. This could indicate that bottom formation is delayed further.

Technical signals are also leaning bearish. Bitcoin faced resistance below the 50-week simple moving average of about $91,700 and then appeared to break out of an ascending range. It is currently testing around $62,000, the 200-week simple moving average seen as a long-term support level.