Bitcoin Price Volatility Expected as July 28-29 Fed Meeting Looms

Bitcoin is trading near $60,000 as it enters July 2026, still reeling from its worst half-year in recent history. The cryptocurrency began January above $93,000 and peaked at $126,000 in October 2025, only to grind down to a fresh 21-month low near $58,000 in late June. This decline of more than half from the top is unusual because it occurred without any major exchange failures or large stablecoin losses.

The damage came primarily from two external forces: the Federal Reserve and Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) outflows. The Fed's decision to hold rates steady at its June meeting, coupled with a 70% probability of another hold on July 29, offers little relief for Bitcoin this month. In fact, any hawkish language or hint of a hike could push price back below the $58,115 floor.

The second force is the historic ETF outflows, which reached $4.5 billion in June and have led to sustained spot selling through creation-and-redemption machinery. Until these outflows turn, one of the largest sources of structural demand becomes a source of supply.