Bitcoin Crash Chances Plummet as Long-Term Signals Turn Bullish

A recent analysis by crypto expert Sykodelic has shed light on the current market environment for Bitcoin. The analyst notes that long-term signals suggest a strong possibility of an end to the drawdown phase. By examining the behavior of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly candlestick timeframe chart, Sykodelic argues that the probability of revisiting new lows has dropped significantly.

The RSI break is seen as a crucial indicator, with only three instances in Bitcoin's history where it has fallen below 30. The current situation shows the RSI back within the normal zone and having broken above a descending trendline that touches lower highs. This scenario is considered significant by Sykodelic.

Furthermore, multiple bottom indicators have converged simultaneously, with around 12 important indicators firing at once. This convergence is seen as reaching a very high degree. Additionally, broader market data supports the analysis, including Bitcoin exchange reserves hitting seven-year lows and whale wallets accumulating more than $2 billion worth of Bitcoin in recent times.

The chart shared by Sykodelic shows BTC breaking out of a descending trendline above $70,000, with similar RSI breakouts observed in 2022, 2023, and early 2025. Despite the bullish signals, the analyst stops short of declaring an unconditional all-clear, emphasizing that the most critical factor is how BTC closes the week.