Bitcoin Faces Bear Market Warning as Rally Hits Resistance

Bitcoin's latest rally has hit a snag, with the asset struggling to clear its 200-day moving average near US$82,400.

The moving-average zone acted as major resistance during the 2022 bear market, and CryptoQuant's head of research Julio Moreno warned that Bitcoin had reached a significant historical resistance zone.

According to Moreno, the 200-day MA has consistently acted as the boundary between relief rally territory and trend resumption in bear markets. In this case, the current pattern is seen as a risk signal, as Bitcoin rallied about 37% from roughly US$60,000 in February to about US$82,000, only to fail near the same long-term trend line.

CryptoQuant's data also suggests that weak spot demand and fading futures momentum are weighing on Bitcoin's price. The firm's Bull Score Index fell to 10, a level characterised as extremely bearish, and open interest (OI) on major crypto exchanges had fallen by nearly US$1.25 billion, signalling a decline in buying power.