Bitcoin Spot Demand Weakens Despite ETF Inflows

Bitcoin's spot demand has weakened in recent weeks, despite positive inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. According to CryptoQuant analyst ScenarioX, the 30-day Bitcoin spot demand metric has dropped from -80k BTC in early July to -170k BTC currently.

This decline in demand is notable because prices have remained relatively stable around $65k due to short-covering in the derivatives market and easing short-term holder sell pressure. However, this stability may be short-lived as the lack of new capital growth signals a stabilization rather than a reversal in the trend.

Axel Adler Jr.'s analysis using the Bitcoin New Investors metric also supports this view. The metric measures the share of capitalization concentrated among coins younger than 1 month and currently stands at 8.1, near its yearly lows. This indicates that new capital is not being injected into the market with enough strength to point towards a trend reversal.

The short-term holder spent output profit ratio (STH SOPR) also remains below the 1.0 mark, indicating that short-term holders are still experiencing losses rather than profits. A sustained recovery in this metric above 1.0 would be a strong sign of market sentiment shifting towards bullish territory.