XRP's derivatives market has undergone a significant transformation in recent months, with key indicators suggesting a full reset.
According to CryptoQuant data, Binance's Estimated Leverage Ratio for XRP fell from 0.59 in mid-July 2025 to 0.13, a near-total unwind of leveraged positions built during the 2025 rally. Open interest dropped from highs of $1.8 billion to $375.5 million, indicating a reduced risk of cascading liquidations.
Fibonacci cycle analysis, as presented by analyst Egrag Crypto, predicts a price target of $21-$27 by August 2027. This target is based on averaging the tops of XRP's two prior major cycles and combining it with a macro ascending channel and a time intersection pointing to August 2027.
However, the short-term structure suggests continued near-term pressure. The hourly chart shows XRP oversold, shorts building, and volume at its lowest since 2024. The monthly RSI pattern is forming a historic bottoming pattern for the third time, which could precede a significant rally.