Bitcoin's Three-Month Winning Streak Hinges on May's Favorability

Bitcoin's performance in May has drawn attention due to its potential to become one of the longest consecutive winning months for the cryptocurrency. With a gain of 3.18% in May at the time of the snapshot, and previous gains in March and April, the market is on track to achieve this feat.

According to Trader_XO's data, May has delivered positive returns about 60% of the time over the past 13 years, with an average return of around 8%. However, there are wide gaps between strong and weak years, as seen in 2017 and 2021 where May returned gains above 52%, but fell by 35.31% and 15.6% respectively.

The debate over Bitcoin's performance is not just based on numbers, with some market participants arguing that context matters. As pointed out by StrongHedge, Bitcoin had 'pico-bottomed' in 2019 and then started a new uptrend. This view suggests that the current rally may be sustainable beyond May.

Inflation concerns are also playing a significant role in shaping the market's expectations for Bitcoin. Despite high inflation rates, commodities prices, and U.S. consumer inflation expectations rising, Bitcoin has continued to rally. The Bitfinex analysts note that macro signals remain divided, with commodities pricing supply stress while risk assets keep trading higher.