CLARITY Act Passage Odds Plummet as Senate Calendar Tightens

The passage of the CLARITY Act in 2026 is facing increased skepticism as Galaxy Research downgrades its odds from 60% to 50%. The research firm cites a shrinking Senate calendar as the main concern, not a decline in bipartisan support. With around 4,000 community banks warning that stablecoin provisions could drain $1.3 trillion in deposits, lawmakers are under pressure to release a unified bill and schedule floor time.

The CLARITY Act has been on the Senate Legislative Calendar since June 1, but no unified version reconciling the Banking and Agriculture committees' proposals has been released yet. According to Galaxy Research, Senate Majority Leader John Thune must commit to floor consideration by early July for the legislation to pass before the August recess.

Several policy disputes remain unresolved, including stronger ethics provisions pushed by Democratic lawmakers and changes to developer protections in the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA). The Senate's agenda has become increasingly crowded with competing priorities consuming leadership attention at a critical moment for the crypto bill.