Liu Predicts Q3 Market Driven by Liquidity and Regulation

On July 20th, Andy Liu, Chief Analyst at HTX Research, participated in Huobi's Big Kahuna Lectures as a guest speaker. He discussed '2026 Q3 Forecasts: New Order in Global Cryptocurrency Market under Liquidity Repricing.'

Liu has extensive experience in the cryptocurrency industry and is responsible for building HTX Research's overall research system, covering macro market linkages, industry trends, and CEX asset strategy research.

In reviewing the Q2 market performance, Liu noted that Bitcoin's price dropped from around $82,000 in mid-May to a seasonal low of approximately $59,000 in June, representing a 24% decline. However, this was not the end of the cryptocurrency cycle but rather a re-pricing under global dollar liquidity contraction.

Liu presented three key judgments for the Q3 market:

1. Liquidity beats geopolitics: Short-term events may influence market sentiment, but it is energy prices, inflation, Federal Reserve policies, and the US dollar's trajectory that will determine trends.

2. Cash flow trumps narrative: The market no longer rewards macro narratives or stacked TVL; protocols must have real revenue, destruction, and value capture mechanisms.

3. Infrastructure beats price: Despite price retracements, infrastructure expansion continues. RWA, stablecoins, on-chain securities, AI Agent payments, and institutional compliance channels are all advancing.