Bitcoin's price momentum is facing a critical test as it approaches the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The cryptocurrency has been trading above $74,000 after eight consecutive daily gains, but data from Two Prime suggests that this strength may be short-lived.
The company's analysis shows that bitcoin has posted negative returns in the 48 hours following seven out of eight FOMC meetings in 2025. This pattern is consistent regardless of whether the Fed holds rates or shifts policy direction, indicating that the event itself drives volatility rather than the outcome.
Markets are pricing a near certainty that the Fed will hold rates steady, with futures markets only predicting a single 25 basis point rate cut by the end of the year. However, rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions could limit the Fed's flexibility to ease policy, which may lead to a classic sell-the-news reaction.