Bitcoin's Elusive $100,000 Target Faces New Bearish Outlook

The crypto market has been eagerly anticipating Bitcoin's return to the $100,000 price level in 2026, but recent analysis suggests that this may not be likely. Crypto analyst Alex Mason has predicted that Bitcoin will not hit six figures this year, citing its price action as evidence of a controlled trap within an ascending channel.

According to Mason, the ascending channel is a distribution structure where each push upward loses momentum, creating fake strength in the market. This would give retail traders a false sense of security about a potential breakout back to $100,000.

The key moment that revealed this fake strength was Bitcoin's move into the $82,000 CME gap in early May, which was completed but then rejected multiple times between May 6 and 11. This rejection marked a textbook trap before the next leg down.