MicroStrategy's CEO Michael Saylor has recently made the case for Bitcoin's bull run by drawing on historical data. Benjamin Cowen, a member of BeInCrypto's Market Intelligence experts council, has also shared his analysis in a memo that suggests the next Bitcoin bottom will be in Q4 2026, near $44,000.
Cowen's framework compares the October 2025 top with the June 2019 top, both of which occurred on apathy rather than euphoria. He argues that this cycle is different from previous ones and that the reset now depends on time rather than a single price level. The current path has seen a 48% decline, with retail attention never returning to pre-2021 levels.
The 2019 analog bottomed at day 261, when the March 2020 pandemic crash reset every indicator at once. Cowen treats this as an external shock, not a cycle mechanism. With 282 days of drawdown, he expects this reset to complete through time instead.