Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom Drawing Closer, On-Chain Indicators Suggest

Bitcoin is trading near $62,600, roughly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080. Two long-term on-chain indicators now suggest the Bitcoin bear market bottom is drawing closer.

The Puell Multiple measures miner revenue against its yearly average and has historically signaled miner capitulation and cyclical lows whenever readings fall below 0.5. According to Glassnode data, five extended visits to this zone occurred in 2012, 2015, late 2018, mid-2020, and late 2022, each coinciding with a macro low in the BTC price.

Meanwhile, the long-term holder supply of coins unmoved for over 155 days has reached a record 16.75 million BTC on July 11, nearly 84% of the circulating supply. This pattern is familiar from previous cycles where long-term holder supply pushed to new highs as the bear market deepened.

Analyst PositiveCrypto noted that the Puell Multiple currently shows daily miner revenue well below its 365-day average, a setup that has always appeared at late bear market lows. This compression mirrors Bitcoin's declining volatility as the asset matures.