A new report by Project Eleven has shed light on the growing concern surrounding quantum computers and their impact on blockchain security.
The report concludes that a 'cryptographically relevant quantum computer' – one capable of breaking elliptic curve digital signatures protecting Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other major blockchains – may exist as early as 2030 or by 2033 at the latest.
Quantum computers have accelerated their potential timeline for threatening crypto networks due to recent hardware developments. These advancements have lowered the bar required to run an attack using Shor's algorithm, a quantum computing technique first described in 1994.
The report estimates that around one-third of Bitcoin's total possible supply is held in addresses whose public keys have already been exposed on-chain, making them potentially vulnerable to quantum attacks. On Ethereum, over 65% of all ETH is held in quantum-exposed addresses.
Experts recommend that blockchain networks begin immediate cryptographic inventories and deploy post-quantum key exchange without delay. They also warn that the slow-moving nature of blockchain governance may hinder the transition to quantum-resistant cryptography.