Bitcoin's July Downturn May Be Temporary as Seasonal Patterns Align

Bitcoin's July has started on a sour note, with the cryptocurrency closing at $58,624 on June 30, marking its lowest daily close since September 2024. This move pushed BTC below short-term support and took it to a new local low near $57,800.

The Better Crypto Calendar shows that July has historically been a green month for Bitcoin, with the prior Bottom Year Julys in 2018 and 2022 averaging a roughly 19% bounce. This trend still supports an oversold relief move toward the weekly TBO Fast line, even if BTC remains bearish on both the daily and weekly TBO.

Ethereum is also strong bearish on the daily and weekly TBO, yet the On-balance Volume moving average lines for both BTC and ETH are flattening. This suggests that the current downtrend may be preparing for a short-term change in character.

While some altcoins offer tactical bounce setups, such as SOL's second TBO Close Short and BCH's bullish divergence, it's essential to approach these opportunities with caution and selective entries.