Bitcoin Price Halves, ETFs Face Critical Juncture Amid Macro Risks

The Bitcoin market is experiencing a critical juncture as the cryptocurrency's price halves from its October 2025 peak. The sharp decline has sparked a surge in U.S. search interest, indicating a return of retail investment despite challenging market conditions.

Unlike previous cycles, where offshore exchanges were the primary entry point for institutional and retail investors, the current cycle sees U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs as the main conduit for investment. As such, ETF flows are now the most up-to-date indicator of whether increased interest is being channeled into investment.

The situation presents a choice between bottom-fishing and escalating macro risks, with prominent voices framing the selloff in starkly different ways. Some believe that a financial crisis could push Bitcoin to new record highs, while others see traditional bottom-formation levels that have been observed after previous capitulation events.