The Bitcoin 4-year cycle has long suggested that the year following a post-halving bull market becomes a bear market, implying that 2026 should be a weak year for Bitcoin.
However, on-chain data from CryptoQuant reveals a different story. The MVRV peak, which measures speculative excess in relation to fair value, has steadily declined across cycles: 5.88 (2013), 4.72 (2017), 3.96 (2021), and 2.74 (2025).
This decline indicates a more mature market driven by institutional participation and spot ETFs, rather than speculative excess.
In addition to the MVRV peak, Apparent Demand, which measures whether the market is absorbing newly issued Bitcoin, has turned negative, suggesting that demand growth has slowed.