China's Top Miner Sees Bitcoin Bear-Market Low at $42k-$44k in Late 2026

Jiang Zhuoer, a prominent Bitcoin miner in China, has shared his analysis on the current state of the cryptocurrency market. He believes that Bitcoin may reach its bear-market bottom between October and December 2026, with a possible price range of $42,000 to $44,000.

Jiang used the mNAV (market net asset value) model to make his prediction. The mNAV model compares Strategy's stock price with the value of Bitcoin backing each share. According to Jiang, Strategy's mNAV has dropped to 0.72, which is close to the 0.7 mark seen on May 11, 2022.

Jiang notes that the current area is a possible low zone for mNAV, but not a confirmed low for Bitcoin. He also links the reading to recent stress around Strategy-linked sentiment, including the de-anchoring of STRC. Jiang suggests that this setup could support long MSTR and short BTC arbitrage trades for some market participants.

The mNAV model has shown a gap between its low and the price low in previous cycles. In 2022, Strategy's mNAV bottomed when Bitcoin traded near $31,017, but later reached its cycle low of around $15,476 on November 21, 2022.