Clarity Act Approval Odds Plummet Amid Stablecoin Regulatory Disputes

The Clarity Act, a cornerstone effort to bring regulatory clarity to crypto exchanges, token issuers, and DeFi platforms operating in the US, has seen its approval odds drop sharply from 72% to 45%. This decline is largely due to ongoing disputes over stablecoin regulation, which have become a major obstacle in the legislation's progress.

According to Polymarket data, traders are increasingly expecting delays as lawmakers remain divided over reserve requirements, issuer eligibility, and primary authority between banking regulators and market regulators. The stablecoin debate has emerged as the main roadblock, with disagreements centered around financial control and how dollar-backed stablecoins could reshape payment rails and banking competition.

The decline in approval odds suggests that traders are repricing expectations for regulatory clarity, which could postpone investment decisions by exchanges, custodians, and traditional financial firms waiting for clear operating guidelines. Without legislative resolution, the current environment dominated by case-by-case enforcement and overlapping agency claims is likely to persist into 2027.