Bitcoin Bear Market Predictions Extended Until Q4 2026

Investors and analysts continue to debate the future trajectory of Bitcoin's price, with some predicting a long-term bear market. One prominent voice in this discussion is Benjamin Cowen, an analyst who has been tracking historical patterns in the cryptocurrency's price movement.

Cowen believes that Bitcoin's current price behavior mirrors previous bear markets from 2014, 2018, and 2022. He notes that market peaks have consistently occurred in Q4 of post-halving years, followed by prolonged corrections. This cycle is expected to repeat itself, with Cowen predicting a potential price weakness in summer 2026.

The current market top has been characterized as apathetic rather than driven by retail mania, which may indicate that the correction has not yet run its course. According to Cowen, this pattern is similar to those observed in the S&P 500 during the 1960s and 1970s.

Cowen anticipates further sell-offs later in the year and a possible cycle low around October or Q4 2026. This prediction may come as unwelcome news for investors who had hoped that recent ETF adoption and institutional interest would signal an end to the bear market.