Bitcoin's Current Cycle Underperforms Previous Halvings

The Bitcoin market has been under scrutiny as it continues to navigate its latest cycle. Analysts have been weighing in on the performance of the cryptocurrency, with some expressing concerns over its current state. According to Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy, the 2024 halving has seen a dramatically weaker price increase compared to previous cycles.

Thorn compared the price action since the April 2024 Bitcoin halving to cycles triggered in 2012, 2016, and 2020. The current cycle shows significantly dampened volatility and lower upside. While the all-time high above $125,000 on Oct. 5, 2025 was only 97% above the 2024 halving price around $63,000, previous cycles saw much more substantial gains.

The 2012 halving cycle saw a price increase of about 9,294%, reaching a high of about $1,163. The 2016 halving cycle climbed by about 2,950% to a high of about $19,891. In contrast, the 2020 halving saw a price increase of about 761%. This significant difference in performance has led some analysts to question whether traditional market dynamics are changing.