Warsh's FOMC Debut Triggers Bitcoin Price Volatility

As Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh chairs his first FOMC meeting, traders are looking for clues on interest rate hikes. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 97.4% probability of holding rates at 3.50-3.75%, but market sentiment remains uncertain.

Bitcoin's price action over the past two years reveals a clear pattern: it tends to drop after FOMC meetings, especially when rates are held steady. In 2023, Bitcoin showed mixed results, but in 2024 and 2025, it consistently fell after rate holds, with some exceptions.

Recent data shows that out of eight FOMC meetings in 2025, only one saw a post-meeting rally. The rest resulted in significant price drops, averaging an 11% decline over the following week. This trend has continued into 2026, with every rate hold triggering a downward correction.

Bitcoin's price has been affected by Warsh's forward guidance, which is expected to provide key insights on interest rates and economic policy. Traders are watching closely for any signs of a rate hike or hold, as this could impact the cryptocurrency market.